What geopolitical disruption means for associations

In this episode of Associations NOW Presents, guest host Gary LaBranche, FASAE, CAE, AAiP, CEO of the Risk and Insurance Management Society, is joined by Francisco Gómez, Founder and CEO of Factum Global, and Pietro Macchiarella, MBA, CAE, Senior Director of Data and Insights at YPO, for a timely conversation on how geopolitical disruption is reshaping the association landscape. They explore the slowdown of trade globalization, increasing travel and visa challenges impacting events and engagement, and the growing tension between taking action and staying silent as political issues intersect with mission-driven work. The discussion emphasizes the importance of clear, grounded communication with boards, along with practical strategies like scenario planning and tabletop exercises to prepare for uncertainty. The group also examines how associations can stay agile without compromising their core mission, including the role of AI in monitoring trusted information sources and the value of incorporating diverse global perspectives. As the conversation unfolds, they point to a more fragmented, multipolar world, rising cyber and data risks, and evolving member expectations—offering insight into how association leaders can navigate what comes next.

Check out the video podcast here:

https://youtu.be/hc8BmpdGDhw

 

Associations NOW Presents is produced by Association Briefings.

 

Transcript

Gary LaBranche, FASAE, CAE, AAiP: [00:00:00] Welcome to this month's episode of Associations NOW Presents, an original podcast series from the American Society of Association Executives. I'm Gary LaBranche, Chief Executive Officer of RIMS, the Risk and Insurance Management Society. I am delighted to be joined on this podcast with Francisco Gómez, founder and CEO of Factum Global, a boutique consulting firm specializing in international expansion, market analysis, and strategic growth. Also, joining us is Pietro Macchiarella, senior director, data and Insights at YPO, the world's largest community of chief executives that come together to become better leaders and better people. I've said a little bit about each of you, but if you could tell us a little bit more, starting with you, Francisco.

Francisco Gómez: Thank you, Gary. Pleasure to be here with you and Pietro. As you said, I founded Factum Global, a firm that [00:01:00] specializes in helping both for-profit companies as well as associations and nonprofits expanding internationally. We focus on truly helping organizations understand where to go, how to do it, and how to sustain that growth, and doing this for the last 20 years or so, and delighted to be here.

Gary LaBranche, FASAE, CAE, AAiP: Excellent, Pietro. 

Pietro Macchiarella, MBA, CAE: Thank you Gary. I'm Pietro. Good to be here with both of you. As you said, Gary, I work for YPO, which is the largest organization of CEOs. We have 37,000 member members in hundred 40 countries, so as international as it gets. And myself, I am very international. I've grown up in Europe, I've lived in three different countries in Europe and then moved to the US about 20 years ago. I'm also the chair of the ASAE International Association Advisory Council, which right now is a great place to be because we are the center of, of the storm in a way, supporting associations in their international experience or trying to international.[00:02:00] 

Gary LaBranche, FASAE, CAE, AAiP: Fantastic. Both of you obviously have a tremendous non-North American experience, and I'm just curious. Currently the world is experiencing what we, in the risk management community, call geopolitical disruption, which is a fancy way of saying chaos is abounding in the our current world today and associations and corporations.

Consumers and people in business have to try to navigate all of that, and that's uncharted territory to say the least. Pietro is, your group is international as it gets. What does geopolitical disruption mean? How are you in seeing it impact YPO? 

Pietro Macchiarella, MBA, CAE: So first of all, disclaimer from the lawyers: These are my personal opinions and not the ones of my employer.

I will say the one, some of the assumptions that we are taking for granted up until now are gone. If you look at it as being a constant. Since the, at least the 1990s, uh, I think the, [00:03:00] there is an index, I think it's the World Bank has an index that shows the trade ness where you look basically at the imports and export globally.

And you divided by the, the GDP, the global GDP and the index has been growing like crazy. In fact, I think it's being twice as fast as, as a global GDP growth in the past 20 years. And so. We went from, again, trade being about 30% of global GDP to being 60% or more. And then suddenly this has come to a halt.

Everything is being questioned again. And so obviously there's a, this has an impact on any membership organization. In fact, I feel like we are actually more impacted than our members. Uh, because if you think about the, the true political uncertainty affects the, the members themselves. So their companies, if you're a trade organization or in our case a business organization affects the way you operate the, the association and also affects all the members interact with each other.

So it's a, it's a triple head and [00:04:00] obviously that that impacts everything that you do. At the same time, I'm the eternal optimist and one thing that I do say is the problems are often opportunities and if very often we are. Nice to have for members, all of us in the association space. But when there is a crisis, we become actually a must have if we are relevant and if we are relevant to what they need at the moment.

So I do think that right now what I see is actually a bigger relevance for organizations like ours because we are, we are helping members when they need us. 

Gary LaBranche, FASAE, CAE, AAiP: That's interesting. So if you are truly valuable, uh, and relevant, you'll be more valuable and relevant in times of poly crisis or chaos, or when the world is not going according to what we had thought it would.

Francisco respond to that. Are you seeing that in your practice? 

Francisco Gómez: Yes, of course. I do think that the main thing, however, is that for associations, your political disruption is truly no longer [00:05:00] something that is happening out there. I think we used to see that as a side thing where we're gonna keep this in scenario planning and we're gonna think about the what ifs, but it was not as real and it is now showing up in a very practical ways.

When you think about travel decisions, event planning, member expectations, partner relationships, sanctions, they are privacy concerns. Reputation, right? So it's all over the place. And what makes it especially difficult is that associations have traditionally tried to stay away from politics. But today I think that this is much harder because there is risk not only in taking action, but also in not taking action.

And that creates tension because associations want to focus on policy and not politics, but in a lot of cases it are now intertwined. So the real challenge is not just whether to speak. But how do we speak in a way that is consistent with mission and values? In the past, many associations tried to stay away and above [00:06:00] politics, but today's silence can be read as a statement too, right?

So that's something that I think most associations are wrestling with right now. 

Gary LaBranche, FASAE, CAE, AAiP: So you touched on two, I think, very important pieces there. One. One is that external issues really are internal, even down to when and how we travel. That's a pretty internal, pretty internal issue. And then secondly, the whole idea that you, by not engaging, you are saying something by not speaking out, by not engaging with the chaotic world as it is that can be read, can be viewed as negatively as if you said something.

And I think that's especially true the more. That the association presents to the world, the more engaged with the world. So I was thinking as you were talking, I was thinking for RIMS, one of the ways that we primarily relate to the world is through our certification program, which is growing more rapidly outside of North America than inside North America.

Uh, but also through our convention, which we call Risk World, we bring about [00:07:00] 11,000 people together every year. And Risk World just isn't an educational conference. It's a commercial marketplace. It is the world's largest commercial insurance B2B marketplace, and people from all over the world come there to place their insurance, to buy insurance, the commercial insurance.

So it's actually a very critical part of the whole value proposition to the commercial insurance world. But this year we're seeing a definite impact on some people not being able to get. A visas or not being able to get visas in time to come to the convention in, in Chicago, uh, in Philadelphia also, one of our students, we student groups, we have a, with our partner, Spencer Educational Foundation, we provide a platform for, uh, international student competition in risk management and one of the universities from Africa.

I'm not able to get a visa so far. So we're trying to work through those issues, but this, this constant chaos that we're seeing, the changes [00:08:00] of rules, regulations, consumer preference in, in the case of Canada, we're also seeing significant pullback from our Canadian friends who just don't want to deal with the American economy right now.

How are you communicating those kinds of risks to your stakeholders, to your leaders and board members and others that are important to your organizations? 

Pietro Macchiarella, MBA, CAE: So I think that there is a difference between maybe concern and panic, and I think panic happens when there's no plan. My, my opinion of that's when leadership to step in, when, particularly when talking to the board, it's really about transparency and having a plan.

So do some scenario planning. Look at what we know, what we don't know, what potentially the consequences of things will be. These are, I think this is the way you moderate some of the risks. Uh, otherwise, again, panic kicks in and that's never a good thing because usually decisions made under panic are not ideal.[00:09:00] 

Gary LaBranche, FASAE, CAE, AAiP: That's interesting. Uh, Francisco? 

Francisco Gómez: Yeah, I think I agree with everything. Uh, Piera is saying, I think the key is to communicate in a way that is candid but not alarming. The boards are, and the stakeholders in general do not need drama. They need context. They need scenario thinking. You were talking about that piera and clarity about what the organization is watching.

I usually think in terms of three questions, what is the risk? What is the potential impact? What are we doing about it? It really, that is the conversation you wanna have with the board. And within that question of what is the risk for those watching that may know me, I talk extensively about the risk of inaction, right?

And is related to what we spoke about earlier, is acting has a risk, but not acting has also a risk. And in many cases, that risk could be greater for certain organizations. That helps turn uncertainty into management, and it also helps people understand that risk is not always a reason to stop. In 2025, I saw a lot of organizations stopping.

[00:10:00] Sometimes they were just thinking that things are gonna get back to normal, or let's see what happens in 2026. I see the same organizations realizing this chaos that Gary, you were talking about earlier, is just the world we live in, and we need to learn to live with that and figure out how to proceed more carefully.

The goal is not to eliminate uncertainty, but the goal is to make it manageable. Those of us that have been dealing in international business for years and have been working in countries that are less sophisticated in terms of rules and regulations and those types of things, we're used to that kind of chaos.

So we need to bring that thinking to everything that is happening now and understand this is really not new. It's new in this context, but it is nothing that we haven't faced before. I like the fact that I'm seeing that mentality shift in executives in the association world, and I see them taking action, which I think is very important.

Gary LaBranche, FASAE, CAE, AAiP: As you were speaking, I was reminded of a [00:11:00] quote by Peter Drucker, one of the greatest writers on management theory and management practice, Peter Drucker. He said The danger in times of turbulence is not turbulence. It's. Thinking and acting with yesterday's logic in mind, right? So we have to retrain, relearn our approaches because we can't solve the problems of tomorrow the same way we helped create those problems yesterday.

So that turbulence is not the problem. The problem is the way we think about turbulence or don't think about turbulence. 

Pietro Macchiarella, MBA, CAE: Yeah, no, I love what you both said. I was gonna add that I think there is, there's one thing that is non-negotiable, which is the mission. That's what we do. That should not change no matter what the crisis is or whatever the context is, how we do it, that changes and that's the flexibility that I think becomes much more important under the current circumstances.

And I think that's what sort of where I see that the majority of the impact is really now we do things and for example, you were talking about [00:12:00] the having an annual event where. It becomes much more difficult to get, and these, for example, from different parts of the world. So maybe the next step is to regionalize some of these events.

And I've seen some organizations associations actually do that. So maybe duplicate that one big event in the us, one in Europe and suddenly you're not dependent on one big event anymore, but you have now the option for members to attend either one. And so again, that how we do it is where you can actually, the biggest impact.

Gary LaBranche, FASAE, CAE, AAiP: Hey, I was wondering, as you're talking and I'm listening and processing what you're saying, I'm curious, have you ever done a desktop exercise with your stakeholders, your board members, your management team, desktop exercises for, or our listeners? Uh, our scenarios that you make up in advance, you craft a scenario in advance.

I just used chat GPT yesterday to create one on geopolitical shock plus supply chain and market disruption. It spit back out to me. [00:13:00] Scenario overview with some key stress points and then some exercise objectives, and that it takes you through a 60 to 90 minute process, including things that you drop into the exercise as shockers or stressors to the systems, things like that.

Different timed injections where key decisions have to be made. Have you ever worked with any of those type processes? 

Francisco Gómez: Yes, we do it all the time. As consultant, helping organizations expand internationally. You can imagine the scenario planning is a huge part of it and it keeps evolving though, and in an environment like this, the thinking also needs to be evolve.

It used to be that we would sit down with boards and try to come up with a five year strategy, and it would be a beautiful, shiny piece of paper that boards and executives would use to communicate this is what we're gonna do in the next five years. That is no longer as useful as it used to be. Yes, you have to have a north, you have to have a vision, understand where you want to be in the next [00:14:00] several years, but the pathways to get there are very different, and you need to understand in advance what happens if, right?

So what happens if we go into our preferred pathway and A or C happens then? Where are we going next? Are we going to the V pathway? Are we gonna run some pilots in parallel? How do we start testing some of these avenues to make sure that our strategy is resilient to those changes? So it's not about, and we said this earlier, it's not about avoiding the chaos, we're avoiding the changes that are happening around us, but is how do we build an organization that is adaptable and nimble so that when things start to show up, we're monitoring.

We can see where things are starting to, to look like they're gonna come our way, and we have a plan to navigate those things because we have discussed those possibilities. It's impossible to predict everything that may happen, but I think you can predict certain things. [00:15:00] And what happens if there's a war?

What happens if there's another pandemic? What happens if all of a sudden our number one source of revenue goes away? We have several associations in 2025. That loss substantial revenue when the U-S-A-I-D agency will disappear, they, the appendant is on the contracts in that organization and they found themselves in a situation that they were not anticipating.

So what happens? They could have anticipated that, right? We have X percentage of revenue attached to a single source. What happens if that source goes away? So we could anticipate U-S-A-I-D was going to be disappearing, but we could have anticipated that something could have happened that would jeopardize that source of revenue and we should have been preparing to navigate and try to diversify and get away from that dependency etra.

Pietro Macchiarella, MBA, CAE: Yeah, likewise, I work for an organization that objectively is extremely healthy. We have [00:16:00] 95% renewal rate, 96% we have, we grow very healthy and everything is great. But the good thing is also I work for some business leaders. So they are used to being paranoid a little bit and what could happen potentially will disrupt our model.

So this is basically my daily life. But it's very interesting how we are gonna see also from, from like how the external environment potentially can impact competition. So what competition potentially can come out of nowhere that we are not expecting. So this is an exercise for example, that we're doing right now where we are looking at how, again, the external environment.

Potentially creates new competitors. So that's, so that's something that is very interesting and I, in fact, I advise anybody who's listening to, to think about that, even if things are going great, just think about potentially what are your, your core competitive advantages and which ones are also the ones that can be disrupted more easily by existing or a new incoming competitors.

And [00:17:00] just see how you can evolve to protect them. 

Gary LaBranche, FASAE, CAE, AAiP: So I work for. Bunch of risk managers. Professional risk managers, so risk awareness is front and center in, in all things at all times. Although I, I always, when people say, oh, it must be terrible working for people who are just always worried about risk, it's, it's much more nuanced and strategic than just worrying about.

Bad things that can happen. It's, it really is thinking through the different scenarios and looking for the opportunities and meshing that into our overall strategy. We have a formalized enterprise risk management process where we're constantly and certainly annually, a, a deep dive, but. Continuously evaluating our potential risks and how we might mitigate those or transfer those risks or reduce their potential impact to us.

So it's been fascinating working with them, and I've always been amazed at how willing they are to take thought through [00:18:00] strategic risks, because anybody in the risk management will tell you, but part of the reason that companies and hospital systems and university systems engage in risk management is to grow.

So getting back to this opportunity for where can we find the growth opportunity in these times of chaos, I think is important. Before I forget, I did wanna throw in a couple of things for our listeners. There's a lot written out there about risk, trend, trends and risk and that sort of thing, and we just wanna point out a couple every January, the World Economic Forum.

Publishes an annual global risk report or risk survey, and this year it was issued on January 14th, 2026, about six weeks before the current war in Iran began. And interestingly, the number one expected issue was. Geopolitical confrontation, which was seen more as an economic issue, tie it back more to the [00:19:00] tariffs and that sort of thing.

This, but the number five of the 10 expected risks for 2026 was in fact. State-based armed conflict or war as we think of it today. Very interesting that in January, and this is a survey of hundreds and hundreds of, uh, risks in business professionals, that geopolitical risk, geopolitical conflict was very high on the list.

They also asked what are the longer term risks 10 years out, and almost all of them. Were, or the bulk of them were environmental related, major weather risks, that sort of thing. And only one or two, one or two were, uh, social issues, inequality and that sort of thing. And a few more were technological, but none.

Geopolitical or armed conflict, which I found to be very interesting. Short term, a lot more potential conflict, longer term, more climate change kinds of issues. So there's a number of these indexes. Aon, [00:20:00] the insurance broker publishes one BlackRock. Publishes a geopolitical index and that sort of thing.

Mark on your calendar at the end of the fourth quarter every year, just start doing Anu some searches and get an AI agent out there looking for some of these and maybe provide you with a summary report of what the consensus views are of, are there out there, where do you guys go for your, uh, information?

What sources do you go to manage your way of thinking to guide your analysis? 

Francisco Gómez: Have, one of the things that we advise our clients is to stay on top of technology, and I have to try to leave the same principles that I preach. I build some agents with AI to help me stay on top of, rather than new them, strict guidelines as to which kinds of sources.

You mentioned a Capital World Economic Forum, United Nations, certain news outlets that I trust and it, it feeds me the information on what's. [00:21:00] Happening and then I can go and follow up and try to see what else is out there. So today it's very easy to stay on top of this. It used to be the this thing of trying to look for things, but now you have a way to serve, very easily build agents for information that is gonna be coming to you at the right proper time.

So I highly recommend doing that. I also wanted to mention very quickly, since you were talking about some of these resources, I am part of the A SAE. Executive Management advisory Council, and they recently put out, and I'm talking about in the last two weeks, my colleagues developed a discussion guide on navigating politicized issues.

I highly recommend it. I think it's a 11 or 12 page document. That is helping associations think through this. You can find it on my own LinkedIn. I shared it on ASAE Collaborate or simply reach out to ASAE. I'm sure they'll guide you to the right place to get the guide, but I think it's association leaders helping other association leaders think [00:22:00] about some of the issues that we're discussing right now.

Pietro Macchiarella, MBA, CAE: Yeah, very cool. Francisco. I can add something like that as well because we, as the International Association's Advisory Council, we actually provide a lot of content to members as well. So we have almost a, pretty much a monthly webinar on hot topics. So if anybody's interested in anything international and associations, please keep an eye on our webinars because there is a lot of content.

In fact, we just did one on. When to speak up, for example, when it was extremely hot topic. But going back to your original question, Gary, one thing I love what Francisco said about basically having AI gather, gathered some uh, news sources for you. One thing I also to do is to look at different perspectives on news.

So one of my daily routine is actually when I wake up, I look at European newspapers when I'm still in bed, I read different, luckily I speak different languages so I can see how they tackle some of the issues and then. In the evening, I usually read Wall Street [00:23:00] Journal or some American media just to see the different perception of, and the relatively importance of different issues that maybe for us are not as as important.

So I also recommend if you can look at the international perspective a little bit, see how other countries are reacting to different pieces of. 

Gary LaBranche, FASAE, CAE, AAiP: Get out of your own bubble, then get out of your own echo chamber and look for those diverse sources and resources that you know might not stumble over in the normal course of events.

Francisco Gómez: A hundred percent. 

Gary LaBranche, FASAE, CAE, AAiP: Interesting. Francisco, do you have something to add? 

Francisco Gómez: No, I just say that that's critical because it's harder and harder to just get the news these days. They come with opinions. So 

Gary LaBranche, FASAE, CAE, AAiP: yeah, 

Francisco Gómez: we have to make sure that we look at different sources to try to get our own idea of what's actually happening.

Gary LaBranche, FASAE, CAE, AAiP: Thinking about that for a second, thinking about the longer term, as we start to bring this podcast to an a conclusion, think about another, a different time horizon of say 24 months or thereabouts. Where's your head at [00:24:00] and where would you suggest other association professionals ought to start thinking about the next series of trends or the continuation or cascade effect of these trends?

What do you see in the future that we should be thinking about today? 

Francisco Gómez: There are a few, right? Obviously, one is the direction of US policy and trade, whether we like it or not, that is impacting the world. This serve continued geopolitical instability is something that we have to think about. You were mentioning Gary travel and vision friction.

I think those issues are going to continue to be increasing with everything that is happening. But I, I do wanna say that. A lot of economists out there for years. Were talking about de-globalization and everybody just going inward and staying away from the world, and we have disagreed from the very beginning.

I don't think that's happening. I don't think that will happen. What we're seeing is a reconfiguration of how we do global business. We see new alliances and partnerships and [00:25:00] trade. Routes that are emerging, and so this global trade will always be there, but we have to take a look at those frictions that we're looking at.

Aside from that, I think obviously cyber and data risks are huge and how AI is changing member expectations and operating models, and this is something that should be at the forefront of any association thinking is not whether we like it or not, is when will your. Operating model, be truly impacted by all of this, and how do you anticipate it and take advantage of those things.

And more broadly, I think leader should prepare for a more fragmented world. Fortunately, like I said, we're gonna see some of these alliances happening. That's gonna create a lot of opportunity, but it's not going to be as easy to navigate as it one was. It's not about being pessimistic, it means being ready.

The organizations that do well. We'll be the ones I think that can adapt quickly without losing sight of who they are. [00:26:00] Pietro was talking about mission. I think that's critical. I think the future will reward associations that are globally aware, strategically selective, and operationally resilient, which I think is very important, is how do we go from strategy to execution and how do we do that properly?

Pietro Macchiarella, MBA, CAE: Francisco, I think you've said it so well. I don't know if I can add anything more so eloquently, but I will say that I also see, I think the sort of polarization of the world, the creation of different regional interest areas, and I think that's part of the thing that will impact how you, you do business around the world.

I also think that there is probably some economic pressures that will happen depending on the different. World economies go and people know. I tend to be still optimistic about the US economy, not so much about maybe Europe. I think that the interesting thing about Asia is that is probably being affected at least short term by oil right now.

And so I don't know what will be the long term impact of that. [00:27:00] Of course, I think you mentioned Francisco technology. I think AI is also sort of, it's an opportunity. It's a great opportunity, but it's also a concern. I was on a call yesterday where as an alman was one of the speakers, and I could see actually in the executives, so AI executives, even some concerns from themselves, meaning this can be a.

Thing from Manco, but it can also be potentially a threat if we don't manage it well. And so that obviously has an impact also on associations and how we manage it for our members and in the interaction with members. Yeah, I think these are my main points. 

Gary LaBranche, FASAE, CAE, AAiP: Thank you. You've both touched on something that's been on my mind and on my radar, and that goes back to the, the, the Trump administration's national Security Strategy white paper, which really explicitly said, we're no longer gonna be us in charge of everything, right?

We're gonna be in charge of our stuff, and you all be in charge of your stuff. So bringing to an end the era of a US [00:28:00] dominated world order, and going back to, I think both of you touched on the idea of multipolarity. In other words, there'll be different regions of influence around the world.

Engineer the way supply chains work, the way sourcing works, the way workflow proceeds, where migration patterns happen, all of those things and that, and also where knowledge flows. So that will be, I think, very interesting for those of us in the association space. So that multipolarity concept, to see where that takes us long term.

We've all, we've spoke, spoken about AI and I couldn't agree with you more I think. It, it's not, in my view, it's not a question of will AI impact us, but to what degree will AI reshape the world of work and reshape the kind of the relationships that we have as individuals and the synergy or collaboration or lack [00:29:00] thereof or lost thereof between organizations.

I think AI and now it's about the impacts of AI on all on, on all of that. And then think lastly, the, the idea of we as individual leaders. How are we adapting and changing to the challenges that are in front of us? Because going back to Drucker, the problem with turbulence is not turbulence. It's the way we think about turbulence and the idea that we have to change our mindset in order to keep up with this new deck of cards that we're being presented through.

Whether it's geopolitical, chaos, or the new world that we're looking at, I think it's gonna be especially true if GDP grows at 2% versus 3%. If US GDP grows at 3%, we have an entirely different, very optimistic forecast in front of us. If we grow at 2% or under it, things get a lot tougher, a lot quicker for a lot of people.

That's it [00:30:00] for us. We gotta wrap this up. So let me just say thanks to everyone for listening to this episode of Association NOW Presents. Join us each month as we explore key topics relevant to association professionals discuss the challenges and opportunities in the field today. And highlight the significant impact associations have on the economy, the US and the world.

Be sure to subscribe to our podcast on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts. And for more information on topics impacting the association space, visit associations now online at associationsnow.com. Thank you all very much for listening, and thank you to my panelists, Pietro and Francesco.

Many thanks for your help in trying to decipher and discover where we're going in the future. Appreciate it. Thank you all. Have a good [00:31:00] day.